According to @simplykashif, traders on Polymarket assign an 89% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall below $80,000 before reaching $150,000, with BTC trading around $85,500 at the time of the post (source: @simplykashif citing Polymarket, Nov 21, 2025). This market-implied path dependence points to a bearish near-term skew, indicating traders expect a sub-$80,000 test before any move toward $150,000 (source: Polymarket probabilities as referenced by @simplykashif). With spot near $85,500, the $80,000 threshold sits roughly $5,500 lower, a level traders may monitor for downside risk management and breakout triggers (source: price and levels reported by @simplykashif and thresholds from Polymarket).